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Client: WaveUltra Pvt Ltd Jan – May 2024 Via Girish GR & Associates

Harmonizing the Symphony of Predictive Finance

A full predictive finance engagement for a real ultrasonic cleaning equipment manufacturer — combining three-statement modelling, forecasting, ratio analysis, and DCF valuation to arrive at an intrinsic equity value for the business.

₹2,945.63
Equity value per share
20.04%
WACC calculated
₹4.18Cr
Terminal value
661.7%
Peak sales growth (FY22)

A growing manufacturer
needing financial clarity

WaveUltra Pvt Ltd is an ultrasonic cleaning equipment manufacturer based in Bengaluru, serving clients across automotive, medical, electronics, and aerospace industries. By 2022, the company had scaled rapidly — but rapid growth brought a need for rigorous financial modelling to understand true performance, valuation, and the cost of capital funding that growth.

My role, completed during my tenure at Girish GR & Associates, was to build the full financial architecture: historical statement analysis, forward forecasts, and a complete valuation model.

Reading four years of
historical performance

The starting point was a full income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow reconstruction across FY19–FY22. Sales grew from ₹26.4L to ₹1.37Cr, with explosive growth years in FY20 (+560%) and FY22 (+662%) as the company scaled its manufacturing capacity.

MetricMar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22
Sales₹26.4L₹1.74Cr₹1.80Cr₹13.72Cr
Sales Growth0.00%559.95%3.51%661.67%
Gross Profit₹4.51L₹11.13L₹23.95L₹1.01Cr
EBITDA₹19,469₹2.13L₹8.76L₹51.79L
Net Profit₹19,469₹1.98L₹9.08L₹30.65L
EPS₹1.95₹19.83₹90.77₹306.52

Source: Income statement reconstruction, Waveultra Pvt Ltd historicals (FY19–FY22)

Despite the dramatic top-line growth, net margin actually declined slightly from 0.74% to 2.23% over the period — a signal of margin pressure even amid scale, which became a key input for the recommendations later in the engagement.

Profitability, efficiency
and solvency signals

Beyond the headline numbers, a full ratio analysis surfaced how efficiently the business was actually running — turning over inventory, collecting receivables, and converting capital into returns.

Return on Equity (ROE) by year
Mar-19
16.30%
Mar-20
62.40%
Mar-21
78.04%
Mar-22
72.49%
RatioMar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22
Return on Capital Employed1.16%2.89%2.20%8.64%
Debtor Turnover2.95x20.89x3.75x19.75x
Inventory Turnover19.33x6.82x0.86x69.06x
Fixed Asset Turnover0.00x169.83x238.48x31.86x

Source: Ratio analysis using three-statement model

Projecting growth
through FY27

Using trend-based forecasting techniques, I projected Sales, EBITDA, and EPS five years forward — modelling a deceleration from the historical hyper-growth phase into a more sustainable, mature growth curve.

YearSales (Est.)GrowthEBITDA (Est.)EPS (Est.)
FY23E₹14.48Cr5.60%₹56.07L₹350.9
FY24E₹18.52Cr27.90%₹72.21L₹449.4
FY25E₹22.56Cr21.82%₹88.35L₹547.9
FY26E₹26.60Cr17.91%₹1.04Cr₹646.3
FY27E₹30.64Cr15.19%₹1.21Cr₹744.8

Source: Sales, EBITDA & EPS forecasting models

Arriving at an
intrinsic equity value

The core deliverable was a discounted cash flow valuation. This meant calculating Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) across the forecast period, discounting it back using a calculated WACC, and estimating terminal value beyond the explicit forecast window.

01
Calculate WACC using peer comps
Built a peer comp set (Hindustan Unilever, Nestlé India, Britannia, Godrej Consumer, Dabur) to derive an unlevered beta, then re-levered it to WaveUltra's capital structure. Cost of equity came out to 20.88%, cost of debt to 6.80%, blending to a WACC of 20.04%.
02
Project FCFF across the forecast window
Derived EBIT(1-tax) for each forecast year, then subtracted reinvestment needs (~48–49% of post-tax EBIT) to arrive at Free Cash Flow to Firm, ranging from ₹20.3L to ₹50.7L across FY23–FY27.
03
Discount and calculate terminal value
Applied mid-year discounting conventions to each FCFF figure, then used the perpetuity growth method (terminal growth rate of 5.38%) to calculate a terminal value of ₹4.18Cr.
04
Sum to equity value
Combined the present value of FCFF (₹1.11Cr) with the present value of terminal value (₹1.84Cr) to get Value of Operating Assets of ₹2.95Cr. Adjusting for cash and debt, then dividing across 10,000 shares, gave an equity value of ₹2,945.63 per share.

Where the business
could create more value

Beyond the valuation itself, the engagement surfaced concrete areas where WaveUltra could improve its financial position:

Inventory management: inventory turnover swung wildly (0.86x to 69.06x), suggesting inconsistent stock planning that risked either stockouts or excess holding costs.
Working capital optimisation: an extremely negative creditor turnover ratio indicated the company was paying suppliers far faster than necessary — an opportunity to renegotiate terms and free up cash.
Debt restructuring: refinancing existing debt at lower rates or extending maturities would reduce WACC and directly increase the present value of future cash flows.
Debtor consistency: maintaining a steadier debtor turnover ratio (closer to the 11.83x mean) through firmer credit policies would smooth receivables collection and reduce earnings volatility.